Kuchera snow method map7/8/2023 ![]() These winds will gradually diminish while blowing from the north and northwest during Wednesday as the low center pulls away from the area. Peak wind gusts are expected to be 35-45 MPH inland, strongest in higher elevations, and 45-55 MPH in coastal areas with occasional gusts above 55 MPH possible. ![]() Increases steadily and quickly Tuesday, peaking during the afternoon and evening while backing from northeast to north. Wind: No issue Monday evening with just light to moderate east to northeast wind. Adjustments will be made in the comments section (and next blog post) if necessary. Caveats for snowfall include the potential for lower amounts with a closer low center loop and a dry slot working into some southeastern areas, but a low probability of this occurring, or a potentially higher swath of snowfall (greater than 4 inches in my 2-4 inch area) in southeastern MA with a low center loop slightly further east and stronger snowfall banding resulting in this region. Snowfall totals for the event: Slushy coating to 2 inches Cape Cod / Islands as well as the immediate South Coast westward through RI and CT, 2-4 inches interior southeastern CT through south central RI to just inland from the MA South Coast up through the MA South Shore, as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches northeastern CT and northern RI through the I-90 and I-95 belt including Providence to Boston’s Metro West including the city of Boston (except 2-4 inches Logan Airport) and up to the immediate NH Seacoast, 8-12 inches central MA and interior southern NH lower elevations eastward to the I-495 region north of I-90, and 12-16 inches in the higher terrain of central MA and interior southern NH. The snow should then taper off from west to east in the pre-dawn to mid morning hours of Wednesday, and as the precipitation becomes light and more spotty, the dynamic cooling process will stop, and some of the showers will be falling as rain or a rain/snow mix, though this will be insignificant precipitation anyway by that point. Unless an area is under a heavy snow band, some of the snowfall will have a difficult time accumulating, especially the closer to the coast you are, during the daylight hours of Tuesday, but as darkness falls, the accumulation ability will improve quickly and that is when I am expecting most it to take place. The last places to see this changeover take place should be the South Coast and Cape Cod as well as the Islands. This combination can sometimes prevent a clear-cut rain/snow line, with the changeover happening in a more irregular fashion. The rapid deepening of the low center will initiate dynamic cooling, bringing cold air down from above, most rapidly where precipitation is heaviest but also a tendency to happen from northwest to southeast. Precipitation: Starts as mix/snow across southwestern NH and the higher terrain of Worcester County in MA, and starts as rain in all other locations, moving in from southwest to northeast during the late night Monday to early morning Tuesday. Let’s break down each aspect of the storm… Wind will be a factor too, as well as coastal flooding to some degree, though limited. However, snowfall is not the only aspect of this upcoming storm. Keep this in mind when you see my snowfall expectations posted below. A system like this comes with a fairly high potential for the forecast for some areas to not work out well, and this can include both under-performing and over-performing snowfall production. Where this all takes place and how it behaves is key to what we see across the area for rain vs. During its life cycle, the resultant storm will take the form of a slightly elongated center that will eventually consolidate into a more symmetrical center, doing a fairly tight cyclonic loop as it’s captured by the upper level low pressure area associated with it. This is going to come about when a low pressure area moving eastward from the Great Lakes combines with low pressure moving north northeastward from off the Mid Atlantic Coast to just south southeast of New England. A moderate to high impact, long-duration late winter storm is next up from later tonight to early Wednesday. ![]() A little bit of rain may sneak into the region this afternoon in advance of the main storm system. Today’s a quiet but cloudy day, with our clouds a combination of broken low clouds from our adjacent ocean underneath a canopy of thickening high to middle clouds in advance of an approaching storm from the southwest.
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